Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- CAVA's new restaurant openings are exceeding expectations in both Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) and restaurant-level margins, indicating strong performance and successful real estate strategy.
- Operational efficiency initiatives, such as optimizing labor deployment and the Connected Kitchen initiative, are expected to drive increased productivity and long-term margin expansion, enhancing profitability.
- A robust real estate pipeline with balanced growth across established, emerging, and new markets positions CAVA for continued expansion, supporting sustained revenue growth.
- Margin Pressure from Increased Labor Costs: CAVA expects restaurant-level profit margins to decrease by 150 to 210 basis points in 2024, primarily due to prior wage investments and additional near-term labor investments. This includes the impact of an approximate 120 basis point increase in labor costs in Q4 2023.
- Slowing Same-Store Sales Growth: The company is guiding for same-restaurant sales growth of 3% to 5% in 2024, significantly lower than the 17.9% growth in 2023. Factors such as lapsing prior year benefits from favorable weather and the IPO halo may lead to weaker sales performance.
- Anticipated Food Cost Inflation Impacting Margins: CAVA anticipates low to mid-single-digit food cost inflation in 2024, particularly in key ingredients like chicken, olives, and olive oil, which may pressure margins. Additionally, the efficiencies in cost of goods sold (COGS) experienced in 2023 due to high sales growth may not continue in 2024.
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Same-Store Sales Guidance
Q: How does the same-store sales guidance break down?
A: The company guides for 3% to 5% same-restaurant sales growth, reflecting a 2-year stack in the low 20% range for the full year, higher in the first part of the year due to favorable weather and IPO halo effects in Q2 and Q3. Pricing contributes 3%, with traffic and mix making up the remainder. If PPA continues to expand, results may reach the high end of the range. -
Food Cost Inflation Impact
Q: What food cost inflation do you expect in 2024?
A: The company anticipates food cost inflation in the low to mid-single digits, with increases particularly in chicken, olives, and olive oil. Last year's favorable chicken pricing will increase, and olives and olive oil are impacted by an unseasonably warm climate in Europe. This will affect COGS despite the 3% pricing taken. -
Steak Rollout Benefits
Q: Why roll out steak system-wide, and what are the benefits?
A: Positive test results in Dallas and Boston showed strong consumer receptivity and operational effectiveness. Adding steak fills a perceived menu gap for a beef item, offering an opportunity to drive incremental occasions and frequency. The rollout is on track for the second half of the year, with the test designed to be margin dollar equivalent. Guidance does not yet reflect any impact from the steak rollout. -
New Openings Performance
Q: How are recent new openings performing in terms of AUVs?
A: New restaurant openings are exceeding expectations in both AUVs and restaurant-level margins. The company is pleased with the performance of these stores, which contributes positively despite seasonality factors affecting Q4 revenues. -
Digital Pickup Lanes
Q: How are digital pickup lanes performing, and will you expand them?
A: With 31 pickup lanes currently, they are performing better in overall AUVs and slightly higher restaurant-level margins. However, the company is being selective and anticipates pickup lanes to be over one-third but less than 50% of new openings, focusing on optimizing cash-on-cash returns rather than increasing the proportion of pickup lanes indiscriminately. -
Lower Volume Markets Strategy
Q: Any plans for Southeast and Southwest lower volume markets?
A: The Southeast and Southwest markets have AUVs of $2.3 million and $2.4 million, reflecting relatively young restaurants. The company doesn't see a need for different strategies but expects results to increase by continuing to execute on hospitality and culinary innovation. -
Development Pipeline
Q: Any surprises in the development pipeline with accelerated growth?
A: Development timelines have expanded by a month or two, but nothing surprising occurred. The team anticipated challenges and built appropriate buffers into the timeline. With a robust and balanced pipeline, the company envisions a fairly even spread of restaurant openings throughout the year. -
Unit Growth Outlook
Q: What's the unit growth outlook, especially for Q1?
A: They have already opened 11 restaurants quarter-to-date. Q1 has 16 weeks, and the company anticipates that openings will be fairly even throughout the year. -
Store Operations Goals
Q: What are the key performance goals for store operations?
A: The company uses a proprietary operations scorecard with seven key operating and financial metrics, including customer experience scores, management of COGS and labor, accuracy, portion consistency, and food safety adherence. Opportunities exist to improve throughput without overextending resources. -
Connected Kitchen Initiative
Q: What's the plan for the connected kitchen initiative?
A: The connected kitchen initiative is a multiyear journey to improve productivity and operational efficiency by leveraging data and AI models. It aims to enhance predictive scheduling, prep, and cook batching. Investments are reflected in current guidance, and this is expected to drive greater productivity over time. -
Converted Zoe's Units Performance
Q: How are the converted Zoe's units performing?
A: The company is pleased with the performance of the converted Zoe's units, viewing them like new restaurant openings. These units are exceeding expectations, contributing positively to overall results. -
Operational Efficiency Opportunities
Q: Any near-term operational efficiency opportunities?
A: There are opportunities to be more efficient with labor hours and deployment, particularly in balancing prep and peak times. Tests on labor redeployments have recently been implemented to improve productivity. -
Labor Investments Impact
Q: How will labor investments affect margins?
A: In Q4 2023, the company invested an incremental 120 basis points in labor. This will be offset over time by natural labor leverage as AUVs grow. Additional investments may include increased managerial resources at higher-volume restaurants to drive productivity and operational excellence. -
Q1 Comps Modeling
Q: Any guidance on modeling Q1 comps?
A: While not providing intra-quarter guidance, the company states that nothing has changed in their approach to the 3% to 5% same-restaurant sales guidance, despite unfavorable weather in January. -
Brand Awareness in New Markets
Q: Have you changed brand awareness efforts in greenfield markets?
A: The company has updated its local store marketing campaigns to drive increased local press awareness and elevated Community Day events. For significant new markets like Chicago, they plan to implement more upper-funnel marketing campaigns to announce their arrival. -
Store Design 3.0
Q: Any cost changes with the new 3.0 store design?
A: There is no expected change in cost. The new design focuses on warming up the aesthetic with refreshed color palettes, environmental aspects, and softer seating to enhance the dining experience and drive more in-restaurant occasions.